Un-organised sector suffered greater than what Q1 and Q2 knowledge captured: Pronab Sen

Pronab Sen, economist and former chief statistician of India, tells
Shantanu Nandan Sharma that use of proxies and surveys for calculating the productiveness of casual sector doesn’t work throughout a disaster like Covid. Edited excerpts:

How ought to firms and buyers learn quarterly GDP numbers of the Covid interval since distortions are unusually giant?

Growth charges are very delicate to what you might be measuring them on. If there was an abnormally dangerous interval earlier and you take that as the bottom, then the whole lot will look good. And in case you are evaluating knowledge with an excellent interval, then it should look dangerous. So development fee knowledge is okay in regular circumstances, however at any time when there’s a giant diversion from a development, then development charges might be very deceptive.

How ought to one learn these numbers?

In a scenario like this, it’s at all times higher to trace absolute GDP figures, which means the extent. The downside is we’re so conditioned to have a look at the expansion charges that we are inclined to overlook the context. For instance, the primary quarter of the subsequent 12 months will likely be a big optimistic due to low base. The proper approach to have a look at the GDP degree of Q1 of 2021-22, for instance, will likely be to check it with the identical interval of 2019-20. The concept is, you return to the closest regular to check. In sure instances, the lag might even be two years or extra. As lengthy as you might be on a development, the GDP development is an effective indicator of the financial system. But when the route itself is altering — optimistic is getting destructive or destructive is getting optimistic — then this quantity turns into problematic. You then have to check it with an applicable interval.

Can you give a number of examples?

India skilled such turbulence within the 1960s and 1970s, although not of this magnitude, once we had dangerous monsoons. Agriculture was essential to the financial system then. Latin America noticed such turbulence and distortion within the financial system.

The Mexican disaster (triggered by a sudden devaluation of the peso in 1994) is a basic instance. Then there was the East Asian disaster of 1997. In all such conditions, comparability was degree to degree of GDP, not of development charges.

How correct are our financial indicators compiled in the course of the Covid interval? Often, proxies are used to measure our casual sector. For instance, within the case of unorganised manufacturing sector, we use the Index of Industrial Production; in buying and selling sector, which is fairly giant, we use the simply accessible GST knowledge. In some instances, employment knowledge is used. For calculating the casual sector, surveys are used. But these proxies might not be very correct throughout this type of a pandemic. That is why many people imagine that the unorganised sector, in truth, suffered greater than what was captured within the GDP knowledge of the primary two quarters. Both Q1 and Q2 figures are higher than actualities.

How dependable are varied projections being launched by nationwide and worldwide companies?

All projections are moderately correct in regular circumstances. They use sure fashions. All financial fashions assume continuity, which means issues are shifting as a development. It is a motion, up or down, however nothing dramatic. But the second there’s a discontinuity, just like the lockdown or demonetisation, the identical fashions break down. And then the forecasts will not be dependable in any respect.

var urlParams = window.URLSearchParams && new URLSearchParams(window.location.search), optParam = urlParams.get && urlParams.get('opt');

var objSec = {template: 'articleshow_main', msid:'79584435', secNames: ['news','economy','indicators'],secIds:['2147477890','1715249553','1373380680','344531568']};

var tmplName = tpName="articleshow_main",lang = '',nav_sec1,newHookId,subsec1_value,subsec1_common = '1715249553',newHookId2,subsec2_value,subsec2_common = '1373380680'; var objVc = {version_on:'20201205230634',js_etsubscription:'1',js_comments:'111',js_googleslock:'782',js_googlelogin:'54',js_common_buydirect:'749',js_bookmark:'18',js_login:'44',js_datepicker:'2',js_electionsmn:'22',js_push:'54',css_buydirect:'14',js_tradenow:'15',js_commonall:'122',lib_login:'https://jssocdn.indiatimes.com/crosswalk/jsso_crosswalk_legacy_0.5.9.min.js',live_tv:'{"onoff_flag": 0, "auto_open": 0, "play_check_hour": 12, "default_tv": "0"}',global_cube:'0',global_cube_wap:'0',global_cube_faces:'2',global_cube_fullad:'0',global_cube_landingon:'sensex',global_cube_wap_url:'https://m.economictimes.com/iframe_cube.cms',site_sync:'0',adx:'1',amazon_bidding:'1',fan_ads:'0',trackAdCode:'0',ajaxError:'1',oauth:'oauth',planPage:"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/plans.cms",planPageTest:'https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/plans.cms',subscriptions:'subscriptions',krypton:'kryptonp',apw:'apw',nlSubscribe:'etsub3'}; if(window.location.host == 'economictimes-pp.indiatimes.com') { objVc.oauth="oauth-pp"; objVc.krypton = 'krypton-pp'; objVc.subscriptions="subscriptions-pp"; objVc.apw = 'apw-pp'; } var objDim = {d52:'nature_of_content',d10:'user_login_status_hit',d54:'content_shelf_life',d53:'content_target_audience',d12:'tags_meta_keyword',d56:'degree_of_conten',d11:'content_theme_the_primary_tag',d55:'content_tone',d14:'special_coverage',d58:'et_product_item',d13:'article_publish_time',d16:'video_embed',d15:'audio_embed',d59:'show_paywall_final',d61:'paywall_probability',d60:'paywall_score',d63:'paid_articles_read',d62:'eligibility_paywall_rule',d65:'bureau_articles_read',d20:'platform',d64:'free_articles_read',d23:'author_id',d67:'loyalty',d66:'article_length',d25:'page_template',d24:'syft_initiate_page',d68:'paywall_hits',d27:'site_sub_section',d26:'site_section',d29:'section_id',d28:'prime_deal_code',d70:'us_election_2020',d72:'paywall_experiment',d71:'plan_group_id',d32:'prime_article_read_before_syft',d34:'content_age',d33:'prime_article_read_before_success',d36:'sign_in_initiation_position',d35:'subscription_method_hit',d37:'user_subscription_status',d1:'et_product',d2:'blocker_type',d3:'user_login_status_hit',d4:'agency',d5:'author_name',d6:'cms_content_publishing_type',d7:'content_personalisation_level',d8:'article_publish_date',d9:'sub_section_name',d40:'freeread',d45:'prime_hp_ui_template',d47:'prime_hp_ui_content_b_color',d46:'prime_hp_ui_content_size',d49:'syft_initiate_position',d48:'content_msid',d50:'signin_initiate_page'};var serverTime="12.05.2020 23:10:51";var WRInitTime=(new Date()).getTime(); (function () {if (self !== top) {var e = function (s) {return document.getElementsByTagName(s)}; e("head")[0].innerHTML = '

'; setTimeout(function () {e("body")[0].innerHTML = ''; var hEle = e("html")[0]; hEle.innerHTML = 'economictimes.indiatimes.com'; hEle.className=""; top.location = self.location; }, 0);}})();

_log = window.console && console.log ? console.log : function () {}; if(window.localStorage && localStorage.getItem('temp_geolocation')) { var geolocation = localStorage.getItem('temp_geolocation'); } // Creating Elements for IE : HTML 5 and cross domain checks (function () { var elem = ["article", "aside", "figure", "footer", "figcaption", "header", "nav", "section", "time"]; for(var i=0; i<=elem.length-1; i++) {document.createElement(elem[i])} var hd = 'indiatimes.com', dd = document.domain,intv,intv2,fo; if (dd != hd && dd.indexOf(hd) != -1) {document.domain = hd} })(); var intv,intv2;var fo; if(subsec1_value == '1715249553' && subsec2_value == '1052732854'){ subsec1_value = newHookId = '1052732854'; // politicsnation }else if(subsec1_value == '1715249553' && subsec2_value == '1373380680'){ subsec1_value = newHookId = '1373380680'; // Economy } if(optParam != "1") { customDimension = window.customDimension || {}; var _gaq = _gaq || []; var customDimension = customDimension || {}; var analytics_js_path="https://www.google-analytics.com/analytics.js"; (function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m))(window,document,'script',analytics_js_path,'ga'); var gaProperty = 'UA-198011-5'; var disableStr="ga-disable"; if (document.cookie.indexOf(disableStr + '=true') > -1) { window[disableStr + '-' + gaProperty] = true; }

ga('set', 'anonymizeIp', true); ga('create', gaProperty, 'auto', {'allowLinker': true}); ga('require', 'linker'); ga('linker:autoLink', ['economictimes.com']); ga('require', 'displayfeatures'); window.optimizely = window.optimizely || []; window.optimizely.push("activateUniversalAnalytics"); ga('require', 'GTM-WV452H7'); customDimension.dimension1 = "ET Free"; customDimension.dimension4 = "ET Bureau"; customDimension.dimension5 = "Shantanu Nandan Sharma"; customDimension.dimension6 = "Native - 79584435"; customDimension.dimension8 = "Dec 05, 2020"; customDimension.dimension9 = "Economy";

customDimension.dimension12 = "gdp,covid,q1 data,un-organised sector,Pronab Sen,Sunday ET,q2 data"; customDimension.dimension13 = "11:11 PM IST";

customDimension.dimension15 = "No"; customDimension.dimension16 = "No"; customDimension.dimension23 = "24295840"; (function () { var a = window.localStorage && localStorage.getItem('et_syftCounter') || ''; a = a && JSON.parse(a) || {}; if(a.beforeSyft && customDimension) { customDimension.dimension32 = a.beforeSyft; } if(a.afterSyft) { customDimension.dimension33 = a.afterSyft; } })()

var contentAge="0"; if(contentAge) { customDimension.dimension34 = contentAge > 2 ? '>48hs':'<48hrs'; } if(customDimension){ customDimension.dimension25 = "articleshow_main"; customDimension.dimension26 = "News"; customDimension.dimension27 = "News/Economy/Indicators/"; customDimension.dimension29 = "1715249553"; customDimension.dimension48 = "79584435"; customDimension.dimension57 = _tiluuid; } ga('send', 'pageview', customDimension); var newHookId ='1715249553'; var newHookId2 = '1373380680'; if(newHookId == '1715249553' && newHookId2 == '1052732854'){ newHookId = '1052732854'; // politicsnation }else if(newHookId == '1715249553' && newHookId2 == '1373380680'){ newHookId = '1373380680'; // Economy } var subsec1_value="1715249553", subsec1_2value="1373380680"; if(subsec1_value == '1715249553' && subsec1_2value == '1052732854'){ subsec1_value="1052732854"; // politicsnation }else if(subsec1_value == '1715249553' && subsec1_2value == '1373380680'){ subsec1_value="1373380680"; // Economy } (function (g, r, o, w, t, h, rx) { g[t] = g[t] || function () []).push(arguments) , g[t].l = 1 * new Date(); g[t] = g[t] || {}, h = r.createElement(o), rx = r.getElementsByTagName(o)[0]; h.async = 1;h.src = w;rx.parentNode.insertBefore(h, rx) })(window, document, 'script', 'https://static.growthrx.in/js/v2/web-sdk.js', 'grx'); grx('init', 'gf999c70d'); var grxDimension = {url: window.location.href, title : document.title, referral_url : document.referrer}; if(window.customDimension && window.objDim) { for(key in customDimension) { var dimId = 'd' + key.substr(9, key.length); if(objDim[dimId] && customDimension[key]) { grxDimension[objDim[dimId]] = customDimension[key]; } } } var subsStatus="Free User"; var jData = JSON.parse(localStorage.getItem('jStorage')); function getCookie(n) {var ne = n + "=", ca = document.cookie.split(';');for (var i=0;i< ca.length;i++){ var c = ca[i]; while (c.charAt(0) == ' ') c = c.substring(1, c.length); if (c.indexOf(ne) == 0) return c.substring(ne.length, c.length); } return null; } (function () { if(ssoid = getCookie('ssoid')) { try { grx('userId', ssoid); var pfuuid = getCookie('pfuuid'); if(pfuuid) { grxDimension['et_uuid'] = pfuuid} grxDimension[objDim['d3']] = 'LOGGEDIN'; var grx_userData = jData['prime_'+getCookie('TicketId')]; grx_userData = grx_userData || {}; var grx_userPermission = grx_userData.permissions; if(grx_userPermission.indexOf("expired_subscription") > -1) { subsStatus="Expired User"; } else if (grx_userPermission.indexOf("subscribed") > -1 && grx_userPermission.indexOf("cancelled_subscription") > -1 && grx_userPermission.indexOf("can_buy_subscription") > -1) { subsStatus="Paid User - In Trial"; } else if(grx_userPermission.indexOf("subscribed") > -1) { subsStatus="Paid User"; } else if(grx_userPermission.indexOf("etadfree_subscribed") > -1) { subsStatus="Ad Free User"; } } catch (e) {} } else { grxDimension[objDim['d3']] = 'NONLOGGEDIN'; } grxDimension[objDim['d37']] = subsStatus; })()

grx('track', 'page_view', grxDimension);

if(geolocation && geolocation != 5 && (typeof skip == 'undefined' || typeof skip.fbevents == 'undefined')) { !function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s) {if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod? n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)}; if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0'; n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0; t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script', 'https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js'); fbq('init', '338698809636220'); fbq('track', 'PageView'); }

var _comscore = _comscore || []; _comscore.push({ c1: "2", c2: "6036484"});

if(geolocation && geolocation != 5) { (function() { var s = document.createElement('script'), el = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.async = true; s.src = (document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https://sb" : "http://b") + ".scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js"; el.parentNode.insertBefore(s, el); })(); }

if(geolocation && geolocation != 5) { (function() { function pingIbeat() { window._pg_endpt=(new Date()).getTime(); var e = document.createElement('script'); e.setAttribute('language', 'javascript'); e.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); e.setAttribute('src', "https://agi-static.indiatimes.com/cms-common/ibeat.min.js"); document.head.appendChild(e); } if(typeof window.addEventListener == 'function') { window.addEventListener("load", pingIbeat, false); } else { var oldonload = window.onload; window.onload = (typeof window.onload != 'function') ? pingIbeat : function() { oldonload(); pingIbeat(); }; } })(); }

}

Source hyperlink

%d bloggers like this: